TECHNOLOGICAL prophets have forecast the triumph of video-calling ever since 1936, when Germany’s Reichspost launched the first public videophone service. But a flurry of announcements from technology companies suggests that its time may at last be at hand. On October 6th Cisco unveiled a video-calling system for the living room called “ūmi telepresence” (yes, really). The same day Logitech launched a television set-top box that doubles as a videophone. Microsoft’s new Xbox game console, due in November, will offer videoconferencing.
科技先驱们甚至从1936年就预言了视频电话的成功，当时的德意志帝国开办了第一个公共视频电话服务。然而科技企业一连串的公告表明它的成功终于近在眼前 了。10月6日，思科推出了一款家用视频通信系统“ūmi telepresence”（是的，没错）。就在同一天罗技发布一款附带视频电话功能的电视机顶盒。微软的新款Xbox游戏面板预定于11月提供视频会议 功能。

The market for professional video gear is also in flux. Skype, a service that allows users to make calls from their personal computer (PC), is moving into this territory. PCs from Hewlett-Packard will soon come with video software from Vidyo, an American start-up. And in April Cisco bought Tandberg, another maker of video gear, for $3.3 billion.
专业视频设置的市场也不安定。Skype，一个允许用户通过其个人电脑（PC）打电话的服务，也涉足这个领域。惠普的PC机很快将附带Vidyo（一个美国的新兴企业）的视频软件。而在八月份思科以33亿美元买下泰德公司（另一个视频设备制造商）。

All this activity is a reaction to the growing popularity of video communication. Video calls accounted for about 40% of the 95 billion minutes that people spent on Skype in the first half of this year. Although Cisco has sold only about 900 telepresence rooms so far, this is far from shabby, considering that such systems cost up to $350,000 a pop and often entail expensive network upgrades (with which the firm makes most of its money). Vendors of lower-end systems, such as Polycom, are not doing badly either.
所有这些行为都是对正变得越来越受欢迎的视频通讯所作出的市场反应。今年上半年，人们在Skype上花费950亿分钟，其中视频电话约占40%。虽然思科 迄今为止只售出约900套“思科网真”（telepresence），考虑到一套该系统要花费超过35万美元而且通常导致昂贵的网络升级（这是公司花费最 大的部分），这一点都不寒碜。低端系统供应商，比如说Polycom，也混得不赖。

Better technology is only one reason for the uptake. Attitudes towards video communications have also changed, says Scott Morrison of Gartner, a market researcher. Having used it at home to let Grandma see the children on their PCs, people now feel more comfortable trying video communication at work. Most important, senior executives have warmed to the high-end telepresence systems sold by Cisco and others, boosting the use of the technology further down the corporate hierarchy.
更好的技术是被接纳的唯一原因。高德纳公司（美国咨询公司）的一位市场研究员斯科特·莫里森说，人们对视频通讯的态度已经发生变化。已经被使用在家里好让 祖辈能见到孙儿，现在在工作中尝试使用视频通讯使人们感到更为舒适。最重要的是，高管们都喜欢由思科和其他公司销售的高端远程呈现系统，而推进该技术的使 用进一步缩小了企业的层级关系。

Cisco and Logitech want to build on this momentum, particularly in the home. Cisco’s gear is the more daring because it is a dedicated video-calling system. The package includes a camera and a console, which together cost $599. Users also have to pay $25 a month for unlimited calls. And they need a high-definition television set as well as a fast internet connection to get good results.
思科和罗技都想要趁势而起，特别是在家用领域。思科的设备更为大胆，因为它是一个专用的视频系统。这个套装包括了一个摄像头和一个控制器，定价为599美元。用户仍必须为无限通话每月付费25美元。而且他们需要一个高清电视以及快速因特网连接以获得满意的效果。

Still a few glitches
仍有一些故障
Yet despite all the progress, video communication is probably still not ready to take the world by storm. Most systems are not compatible: common technical standards are years away, as is a common video phone book. And it is unclear how quickly video-calling will spread. Gartner forecasts that the growth of high-end telepresence systems will allow companies to keep more workers at their desks, saving 2.1m airline journeys a year by 2012 and cutting car-rental costs. But it is not clear that travelling salesmen, for example, will take to the technology.
尽管有如此全方位的进展，视频通讯可能还不足于风靡全球。大多数系统不兼容：通用技术标准远在多年之后，将类似某种通用视频电话本。与目前尚不清楚视频电 话普及的速度有多快。高德纳公司预测高端远程呈现系统将使公司保持更多员工待在工作台前，到2012年每年可节省210万次航空旅行和削减汽车租赁支出。 但这局势尚未明朗，例如旅行推销员会否采纳该项技术。

Another open question is whether customers will plump for dedicated video communication systems over those that also serve other purposes, such as a PC or a games console. Companies need both types: dedicated ones for important meetings and PC-based ones for everyday communication. But will consumers spend a few hundred dollars for an extra device? Then again, experts were equally sceptical when Cisco launched its executive telepresence systems.
另一个明显的问题是：是否用户将选择专用视频通信系统而忽略另外提供其他功能的设备，比如PC机或游戏面板。公司需要两种类型：专用视频通信系统应用于重 要的会议而基于pc的另一设备用于日常沟通。但消费者是否愿意花几百美元购买额外的设备？因此当思科推出它的执行临场远程呈现系统时，专家们再次一致持怀 疑态度。

Whatever system they pick, consumers will come up with new ways to use it. Already, some families host “Skype dinners”, with relatives calling in. Others never hang up, thus turning a display in the kitchen into a window on somebody else’s home. Similarly, some firms have started to experiment with “virtual water-coolers”, connecting their office kitchens by means of a permanent video link. Whether this improves productivity or simply encourages long-distance debates about football and “The X-Factor” remains unclear.
无论他们选择怎样的系统，消费者都将找到使用它的新方法。已经有一些家庭召集亲友举办“Skype聚餐”。有些人从不挂断，因而将厨房里的显示屏变成别人 家的一扇窗户。同样地，一些公司已经开始实验“虚拟的水冷却器”，通过他们办公室厨房的永久视频链接。这是否能提高生产率还是仅仅鼓励了有关足球和其他 “未知因素”的长途争论，目前尚不清楚。